Here’s how we reckon the castaways stack up at the moment.
Sitting pretty (the ‘Blues’)
Despite being a pastor, Werner is economical with the truth - the fact that no-one knows he’s a pastor is proof enough! He’s also been quietly in control of the game for a while, having formed a strong alliance with the former girls of Mindanao, and Annalize. His position of power will surely put a target on his back, but he has not one, but two Immunity Idols. He generally performs well in challenges, and should he be in the final two, the fact that he’s yet to flip on anyone, and is a good social player, may stand him in good stead. Although there’s a hint in this week’s throw-forward that that might be about to change…
Our resident chef has been involved in multiple Tribe swaps and was lucky to remain in the game when Marthunis quit. She’s since formed a strong bond with Werner. She’s been tactically savvy, but not in an overt way, and while her physical game may not earn her many Immunity Challenge wins, her social game is on-point, and she’s been amicable – if not too committal – when approached by players outside her alliance.
Katinka is playing the game! She’s been a serious physical threat throughout the game – especially recently – and with Vusi’s exit, she can be expected to shine in this area. However, while she may have given some castaways the impression that she’s pulling strings – bossiness when it comes to coffee rations should maybe not be taken too seriously – she may not be much more than a pawn in Werner’s game, and she was targeted by the smaller ‘red alliance’ in the last vote. Let’s see if she can play any harder…
A dark horse with a deft turn of phrase, Jeanne has been lackluster in challenges, but she’s solid in her social game. Happily ensconced in a strong alliance, it may take her making a big move to secure a spot in the final two.
Toni’s biggest asset – outside of the stamina and balance she exhibited in the latest Immunity Challenge – is her strong relationship with Werner. Her other ally is PK, but without their blindsiding of Tevin and the loss of Josie, she could have been sitting so much prettier: at the axis of two potential alliances.
Irritating but useful – he’s pulling plenty of fish out of that ocean – Tom’s recent realisation that Chané is no longer his BFF has forced him to find a home in Werner’s alliance, making that block six-strong and in the ascendancy. That said, he’s a recent addition, and while he’s been good in a few challenges, he’s likely to be the first picked off if the ‘blue alliance’ rolls on.
In seeming imminent danger
PK’s saving grace at this stage is his relationship with Toni, but he’s on the outskirts of her other, larger alliance, and was forced to prove his allegiance in the last Tribal Council vote. He seemed lost in the woods before that vote, unsure of where he stands or who he needs to be aligned with (his anger at his former blue-blood tribe is definitely colouring his game-play). He may have been in a stronger position had he not made that big move against Tevin…
She started the game strongly, but her fractious relationship with her former Visayas tribemate Tom – despite their actual ability to work together – and the elimination of her strongest ally Vusi have left her on thin ice. The fact that she audaciously retrieved ‘her’ Idol at Tribal Council is a potential spanner in the works. She’s consistently been unable to form new relationships, but she’s a tough, strategic and respected player, and should never be written off.
Poor Chané. She made a huge error of judgement by not informing Tom about her new alliance with former tribemates Palesa and Vusi (had she told him earlier, there was always a chance they could have enlisted him, and with the help of an interested party like PK, that last vote could have gone a lot differently). She has been playing nice with Annalize – even in the midst of a hectic challenge – but it may be difficult to sway her. She says she still feels like a guest in Araw – whether she’s the most unwelcome guest remains to be seen…